I should have posted this yesterday, but this is the third of these pieces I’ve put together for the New York Times’ Fifth Down Blog.  Unless the Cowboys run the table and win the Super Bowl, which would render last night’s game a huge turning point, last night wouldn’t have made the list.

We’ll get to the game later on, but first, some historical perspective:

As much as we all suspended judgment after the Eagles game, it’s now time to face the facts: During the past two games, a Giants Super Bowl title has gone from probable to possible. Yes, I know, calling a Super Bowl ring “probable” is a little illogical. But let’s just say that going into last week’s game, we would have been absolutely crushed if the Giants continued their success only to come up short in the playoffs. That outcome, a nightmarish worst-case scenario eight days ago, doesn’t seem unlikely now.

As evidenced by last year, championships are determined by which team is playing its best when the playoffs come. After Week 15, with only two games to reverse the trend, it’s safe to say the Giants are not playing as well as some other teams. The Panthers are kicking some serious ass. The Cowboys and Eagles just beat us soundly. The Vikings have started to peak, and the Falcons are no cakewalk.

So we’ve fallen from the lofty perch we’ve occupied all season. The dream-like run in which wins came easy is over. We are now immersed in the same desperate struggle as every other team.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that Tom Coughlin’s Giants are uniquely equipped to weather this situation. Perhaps during that 11-1 start we forgot that this is the Giants we’re talking about, a franchise whose identity is tied to a belief that anything worthwhile does not come easy. It didn’t come easy last year, and it didn’t come easy in 1990, the most apt historical comparison if you want to be optimistic.

That year, a 10-0 start gave way to a 3-3 finish, with losses to the Eagles, 49ers, and Bills and thoroughly uninspiring wins against the mediocre Vikings, the lowly Cardinals, and the pathetic Patriots. We were written off, dropped by the experts from the ranks of the elite, but we kept grinding, eventually winning a championship that, like, 2007, owed itself to the team’s mental fortitude. Indeed, at their best, the Giants don’t dazzle, they grind.

Tom Coughlin’s Giants are a proud bearer of this standard of resilience. So while it may not look like it now, this is where we want to be. We don’t want to be above the fray, entering the playoffs with a dazzling 15-1 record. We want to be in the fight. Because there isn’t a team I like more in a fight than the G-Men.

After the Jets smacked around the Titans last week, it’s hard to dispute that the Giants are the best team in the league.  As FootballOutsiders’ advanced DVOA stats show, this isn’t merely my opinion.  By their measurements, it’s a fact.  (For more on DVOA, click here.)

The G-Men rank first in DVOA by a rather massive margin: Their 41.6% DVOA dwarfs the second-best Ravens, who pull in at 27.7%.  (What, you have a problem with the Ravens being second?  Early in the season, the Ravens choked away a 10-point second half lead to the Steelers.  The next week, they almost definitely would have beaten the Titans if not for a bullshit personal foul penalty on Terrell Suggs, which saved the Titans from a fourth-and-10 deep in their territory.)

Anyway, as Aaron Schatz points out in his weekly DVOA analysis, the difference between the Giants and Ravens is roughly equal to the difference between the Ravens and the ninth-best Packers.  They have been that much better than the rest of the league.  Their 14.0% lead in DVOA is the second best since 1995, to when DVOA stats date back. (The FootballOutsiders guys are slowly but surely making their way deeper into history with this, but it takes time to chart the play-by-play data.)

Indeed, their 41.7% DVOA indicates they are worthy of their Best Team in the League status.  After the Steelers game, NYGMen commentator Flume declared the G-Men “The worst Best Team in the League” in recent memory.  I doubt he would make this claim now, but he was wrong.  The 2008 Giants sport the seventh best DVOA after Week 12 since 1995.

Here’s the top 10 list:

1) ’07 Patriots: 71.3%

2) ’99 Rams: 50.0%

3) ’98 Broncos: 46.7%

4) ’01 Rams: 44.2%

5) ’04 Patriots: 43.0%

6) ’02 Bucs: 42.9%

7) ’08 G-Men: 41.6%

’95 Cowboys: 41.1%*

9) ’95 49ers: 41.0%

10) ’04 Steelers: 40.2%

It’s worth noting that four of the other nine teams did not win the Super Bowl – it’s obviously possible that the 2008 Giants, as good as they’ve been, will not either.  Still, whatever happens in the future should not retroactively diminish what we’ve accomplished to this point.

In his column, Schatz makes a good point about how the Giants 2008 season changes the way one views their 2007 playoff run, particularly their “major upset” over the Patriots.  He writes:

“Obviously, hindsight it 20-20, and you can’t predict games using future information.  However, now that we know that they were on their way to becoming the strongest team in the league, last year’s Giants run through the playoffs makes a lot more sense.  If we could put together a hypothetical game between this year’s Giants and last year’s Patriots, a Giants win would be a minor upset, but not a major one.”

* Note: There is a ridiculous smiley-face that keeps showing up here, and I have no idea why.  Just so you know, I didn’t put it there.  There was nothing funny or cute about the 1995 Cowboys.

Right now, they see a wounded dog in the division, and they didn’t like the way the Cowboys came into this season basically anointing themselves Super Bowl Champions before the season began.  And, you know, they’re smelling blood and they’re gonna give it everything they’ve got.

–Troy Aikman

**

Wow, that was an awful Cowboys team we played today, and makes you wonder if things will be all that different when Romo comes back.  Aikman and Buck made this point a lot during the game, but quarterback play was only part of the problem.  What about stopping the run (we averaged 5.9 yards per carry), running the ball themselves (3.4 yards per carry), or protecting whoever is playing quarterback (4 sacks and tons of pressure)?

In the rubbing it in department, behold and enjoy the following G-Men quotes:

Plaxico Burress: “I mean, they had a star on their helmets so it was a Cowboy game to me.”

Justin Tuck: “They still had us outnumbered 10 Pro Bowlers to none, so I don’t see where all the sympathy is coming from.”

And even some words of wisdom from our favorite Cowboy shit-talking choke-artist, Patrick Crayton:  “In games like this against teams like this, if you don’t bring your A-game, you will get your ass whooped like we got our ass whooped tonight.”

It’s too early to write the Cowboys off, but making the playoffs would require quite the ill run.  It’s possible, and if they make that run, watch out come playoff time.  But they really have no room for error as they pursue the Wild Card.  At 5-4, they’re not catching us for the division.

Good God, that team is a mess.

**

But we’re not.  The 2008 New York Giants: Another week, another statement.

Ah, where to begin here?  Obviously the D, which allowed only one touchdown and 183 total yards, forced 4 turnovers, and was so dominant that even a downright bad performance by Eli didn’t get in the way of a blowout.

All three defensive units were nearly flawless.  We’ll start with the linebackers, who haven’t gotten much love this year.  Danny Clark made a team-high nine tackles and was generally all over the place, shooting gaps and making plays in space.  Is this guy rounding into Kawika Mitchell, redux? 

Chase Blackburn filled in for Brian Kehl – whose toe injury forced him to miss practice this week but isn’t serious – and did an admirable job.  This guy’s such a good player – even when Wilkinson comes back, wouldn’t you rather see Blackburn splitting those weakside snaps instead?  He needs to be on the field.

And Antonio Pierce made two big plays.  The first was when he stripped T.O. deep in our territory after Eli’s weird fumble.  The second was on the Cowboys second series, when he ran stride-for-stride with Jason Whitten down the seam and forced a perfect throw from Johnson that didn’t come.  Tony P has been assailed for his notoriously poor coverage of that seam route, so it’s only right to give credit where it’s due here.

Moving over to the D-line, Tuck was a force.  Coming into the season, we knew he was good, but it was still a question whether he would blossom into a truly elite player.  Eight games and six sacks in, that question is close to being definitely answered.

Tuck had the 2.5 sacks yesterday, but the guy I noticed the most, on a play-by-play basis, was Kiwanuka.  ‘Nuke was way too quick for Flozell Adams, and after being named the Defensive Player of the Week last week, he had his second excellent game in a row.  He only had one sack, but he routinely beat Flozell to the edge and forced Johnson/Bollinger to step up and get flustered.

It appears ‘Nuke is fully recovered from both the high-ankle injury from Week 1 and the leg injury from last year and is ready to explode into a full-fledged pass-rushing force.  I still think he plays too high and can be undisciplined against the run.  But he can straight-up abuse left tackles with below-average quickness, like Pittsburgh’s Max Starks and Flozell the Hotel.

As for the interior guys, I actually didn’t notice that much, but holding Marion Barber to 2.8 yards per carry speaks for itself.

Praise for the secondary begins with Corey Webster – or as Chris Berman calls him, The Dictionary – and his two picks.  The great thing about Webster’s first pick – the one he brought back to the Dallas 27 – was that it came right after that sideline circus-catch by Roy Williams.  Webster covered Williams very well on that play, but a perfect throw and a semi-miraculous catch beat him.  Such is the nature of playing cornerback or defense in any sport: If the offense executes perfectly, they’ll do what they want to do.  But the offense doesn’t always execute perfectly, which was apparent on the next play when Johnson badly overthrew T.O. and the ball sailed right to Webster, who provided great coverage for the second play in a row.  If you have a short memory and do your job play after play, you’re gonna get good results.  That’s how you play cornerback.

Let’s also use this opportunity to praise Webster’s season in general and how far he has come.  His improvement has been well-documented, but it bears repeating: he has evolved from a complete bust into a truly excellent player, though it will take a while for his reputation to catch up to the quality of his play (another Super Bowl ring will help, though).  I never thought I’d say this, but has Corey Webster become a guy you don’t want to challenge?  (And yes, he got beat by T.O. on that short touchdown.  But he had no help in the middle of the field because we brought a blitz.  Tough assignment.)

Then there’s Aaron Ross, who I didn’t notice in pass coverage (good thing) but who I did notice in run support (also a good thing).  Ross had 5 tackles including 3 solos – I continue to be impressed with the angles he takes and how surely he wraps up guys, usually by going low.  And for all those people who panicked so much after the Cleveland and San Francisco games?  I think you were overreacting.

Terrell Thomas started at nickelback and played well, making a big play when he separated T.O. from the ball on 3rd down on the Cowboys eventual scoring drive (The ‘Boys converted the 4th down on the next play.  Oh, and that touchdown drive was illegitimate anyway – that personal foul on Tuck for driving Bollinger into the ground was bullshit.).  Apparently the G-Men are very high on Thomas, and after today, we can see why.

After Thomas was injured on that play – I don’t know the status of that one – Sam Madison came in and provided excellent coverage of Roy Williams on an endzone fade.  At that moment, the following thought crossed my head: Holy shit we’re deep!

That goes for the safety position too, where James Butler headlined the action with his second athletic pick in two weeks.  Butler sprained his knee during the game, but he’s confident he will play in Philly next week.  James Butler… I think us fans are coming around.

Kenny Phillips and Michael Johnson chipped in with five tackles apiece, and another forgotten veteran, Sammy Knight, made five stops also, all of them solo.  Yep, we’re mad deep…

**

Offensively there was a lot to like too.

Obviously the running game, which ran for a clean 200 yards on 34 carries.  As always, the O-Line was the big star here.  Aikman – who, as loyal NYGMen commenter Dan pointed out, has gotten to know the Giants very, very well over the past few years – heaped his usual praise on the fatties up front.  At this point, there’s not too much more to say about them, other than to say definitively that they’re the best in the league.

I’ll once again avail myself of FootballOutsiders stats to prove my point: The G-Men rank third in adjusted line yards (run blocking) and second in adjusted sack rate.  No other team ranks nearly so well across the board.

As for the running backs, Jacobs bounced back from a rough game last week to average 6.9 yards per carry, including two Tiki-esque zig-zag runs in the second half.  He ran over guys and he juked guys out of their cleats.  He was terrific.

Derrick Ward was his usual super-competent self, a performance that included a number of key first downs.  Ward might be one of the most underrated players in football: how confident do you feel with the ball in his hands?

And Ahmad Bradshaw, stashed in the doghouse though he might be, turned in an impressive performance in his brief outing nonetheless.  That guy seems to rip off an awesome run every game.  (Here comes the weekly ritual: We need to get this guy more touches – it’s criminal how underutilized this resource is.)

As for the receivers, there’s Boss and his soft hands, Smith and his nose for the first-down marker, along with Amani and his solid awesomeness.  No receiver stuck out, but there was nothing to complain about.

Except maybe Plax, who dropped those two passes (including a touchdown), and had that miscommunication with Eli on Jenkins’ pick-six.  But while it wasn’t a good game for Plax, I can’t kill the guy. 

For one, the pick-six looked like it was Eli’s fault, at least judging by the body-language during the sideline conversation that was caught on camera.  On the play, Jenkins jumped the route, which probably called for Plax to break it off and run a streak.  Plax saw that, but Eli didn’t.  And wouldn’t that throw probably have been picked even if Plax ran did what Eli thought he was going to?

Secondly, Plax’s great blocking was on display during two key runs – Jacobs’ 31-yard run and Ward’s 17-yard touchdown run – on the touchdown drive that put us up 35-14.  (The awesome thing about that drive was that we answered the Cowboys’ scoring drive right then and there.)

So lay off Plax.  It was a rough game in a tumultuous season, but there’s much less to worry about than many people will have you believe.  He finally showed contrition this week and we’re 7-1 with an awesome passing game.  There’s no crisis.

**

So far, it has been almost all praise.  But now we get to Eli, who was pretty bad, no question about it.  To rehash, he went 16 for 27 (59%, not terrible) for a season-low 147 yards, averaging a sub-par, but also not awful, 5.4 yards per attempt (his career average is 6.4, and his 2008 average is 7.1).  The damaging things were his three turnovers, including an inexplicable fumble and the pick-six by Jenkins.

Today was Eli’s second truly bad game this year, the first being the Cleveland game.  But doesn’t it seem like there’s a difference between these games and the bad games he had in the past, when he looked completely shook out there?  In his bad games this year, he has looked a little reckless.  But I’m sure most Giants fans would prefer Eli to have a bad game due to this overconfidence rather than the underconfidence that characterized his bad games in the past.

A mitigating circumstance in all this was the Cowboys’ solid pass rush, which was really the only facet in which they were remotely successful.  And look at it this way: How ridiculous is it that we beat the shit out of the Cowboys when Eli had a bad game?

**

Other negatives were the kickoffs and the kickoff return game.  On the kickoffs, Carney’s boots have reached a critical point.  The problem is that we shouldn’t part with him as a field goal kicker – a kicker having an automatic season must be respected.

So it looks like we’re gonna have to carry two kickers.  Yes, this seems absurd considering Tynes’ kicks are no great shakes, but it’s honestly the best thing we can do.  Let’s just not dress Rueben Droughns and be done with it.

And on kickoff returns, doesn’t it always seem like the wedge doesn’t get up-field enough for Bradshaw, which causes Ahmad to slow down and tip-toe into it?  This has been going on all year – it prevents Bradshaw from exploding through a hole for a big return.  There aren’t many areas in which this team to improve, but it shouldn’t be too hard to get a lot better in these facets.

In the comments section on Monday’s post, Jake, a ‘Skins fan, posed the question of which NFC East team should scare us the most.  Dan’s replied that while the ‘Skins deserve credit for what they’ve accomplished thus far, the Cowboys – once they get Romo and their guys back – scare him more.

In order to have this conversation, I think we need to define what “scares us” means.  Are we talking about the team most likely to overtaking us for the Division lead?  Or the team we’d least like to face in a late-season of playoff game?  Those two different questions have two different answers.

**

In terms of overtaking us, the ‘Skins 6-2 record – and their second half schedule which includes three bad teams (Seahawks, Bengals, Niners, albeit on the road) and home dates against the NFC East – makes them the biggest threat.

I think Dan was a little dismissive about the ‘Skins when he said they’ve been “overachieving.”  They have been a little, but not by all that much, and it’s possible the difference will be offset by having the NFC East at home during the second half.

To be clear, their 6-2 record is not a mirage: their 20.5% DVOA ranks fifth in the league.  Defensively, their defense has actually been worse than last year (-3.3% to -7.2% — remember, a negative DVOA is good on defense).  Offensively is where they’re probably overachieving: their 19.9% is much higher than their 1% last year, which speaks to Dan’s point about water seeking its level.

On the other hand, it’s possible that Campbell has truly arrived.  His 27.7% DVOA ranks seventh in the league, just ahead of Eli’s 27.5%.  Last year, Campbell’s DVOA was 4.4%, ranking him 22nd in the league.  Eli’s?  -13.5%, though that only includes the regular season.

So is it really fair to assume that the ‘Skins O is a fluke and ours isn’t?

**

In terms of the most scary team in what Mike Francessa would call a Big Spot, I agree with Dan that it’s still the ‘Boys.

Think about it: the ‘Boys beat us twice in the regular season last year and then outplayed us in that playoff game.  If Patrick Crayton doesn’t break off his route on that final drive, or if Crayton doesn’t drop two key first down passes, or if Romo doesn’t grievously overthrow T.O. on that third quarter crossing pattern deep in our territory, the Cowboys probably win that game.  Taking nothing away from what we accomplished and how much the Cowboys choked, we were lucky to win that game.  Any time you win a game in which you were outgained 336 to 230, you’ve gotten lucky.

This year, the ‘Boys, at 5-3, haven’t played well, even considering the injuries they’ve had.  Their DVOA of -5.2% places them 20th in the NFL, and owes largely to their shoddy defense (10.2%), far worse than their -5.8% last year.

But two of those losses – a 2-point loss to Washington and an overtime loss to Arizona – could have gone either way.  And if last week’s game against Tampa Bay is any indication, their defense is coming around.

It’s a long season, and their best football is ahead of them.  And do you think there’s anything the Cowboys would relish more than coming into the Meadowlands in January and avenging last year?  That prospect is not unlikely, and has to scare you.

What is unlikely is the Cowboys overtaking us, especially because they will be very hard-pressed if they don’t win on Sunday.  It’s possible, and the 11-point line is a little steep, but I don’t think Brad Johnson is beating us.

**

Lastly, just as Dan said, don’t forget about the Eagles.  No, don’t forget about the Eagles at all.

You guys might be a little tired of DVOA by now, but let me point out that it’s actually the Eagles, not the Giants, who rank first in the NFL in the arcane but all-important stat.  (The Eagles are at 38.6%, while the G-Men are at 37.2%.)

They’re in a bit of a hole at 4-3, but in one of those losses, they severely outplayed the Bears (these types of early-season losses seem to always happen to the Eagles).   More importantly, they just got Westbrook back.  4-3 notwithstanding, this team is really good.

**

So in conclusion, in terms of the teams that are the biggest threat to overtake us for the division, I would go 1) ‘Skins; 2) Eagles (they’re gonna beat the Seahawks this week); and 3) Cowboys.

But in terms of teams who I fear most in a big game down the stretch, I would go 1) Cowboys; 2) Eagles; and 3) ‘Skins.

We knew that the NFC East was good going into the year, and aside from the Cowboys’ injuries and drama, it has been better than expected.  And the Cowboys, we must assume, will get their shit together.  Scary.

So much for the nationally-televised coronation….  I’m sure most of us had forgotten how much losing sucks.  It’s been a long time since we’ve felt this way, which I guess underscores how lucky we’ve been this calendar year.  And hey, at least we’re not the Cowboys.

I started to worry – I always worry, but seriously worry – during the drawn-out pregame hype on ESPN.  All throughout the week, I had no problem indulging in the media love-fest surrounding the Giants, but as it crescendoed an hour before the game, it began to take on an ominous edge in my mind.  The “humanizing” segment on Coughlin featuring the Snees (Chris and Tom’s daughter) was an especially surefire sign that things had become too good to be true.  At that point, I knew a letdown of some kind, at some time, was imminent.

I just hoped it wouldn’t be last night.  But as I keep telling myself, we weren’t gonna go 16-0.  Even great teams will occasionally turn in terrible performances.  And last night, the 2008 Giants – who have become a great team over the last eight games by discovering an ability to play consistently well on both sides of the ball – laid their first egg.  It was a terrible performance, to be sure, but one that is now in the past while we are still in first place at present.

Or so I keep telling myself.  Because last night’s loss was not only brutal, it was worrisome, particularly because of our pass rush.

Neither or front four or are many blitzers could get close to Anderson all night.  Play after play, he was able to sit back, calmly scan the field, and find the open man.  Pretty quickly, he got into a rhythm where he was making his reads and firing strikes.

This makes it two out of three games where our pass rush has let us down (the Bengals game, the 6 sacks notwithstanding, was the other).  After that game, the Star-Ledger’s Mike Garafolo took stock of our pass rush over our first few games.  His conclusion was that while the sacks were there, the quarterback hurries were actually way down from last year.  Last night, neither the hurries nor sacks were there.

This points to two things that should really concern Giants fans: 1) We miss Osi and Strahan a lot more than we wanted to think at the beginning of the year.  Sure, Tuck’s great, but Kiwanuka and McDougle might not even be good.  At the position, it’s possible that we’ve gone from historically good to merely above-average.

And 2) Our blitzes were completely, utterly, scarily ineffective last night, which makes you wonder if we’re tipping them in some way.  There was talk after the Bengals game that we were tipping them, but that quieted after the Seattle blowout.  Maybe its time to start thinking about that again, as well as the uncomfortable possibility that the league may have caught up with Spags.

Could it be that our pass rush is a shell of what it was last year?  After last night, it seems possible.

While the pass rush was worrisome, there were some things last night that were merely bad.  There’s a distinction there: the bad stuff you expect will turn around.  The worrisome stuff you’re not so sure.

The play of the secondary, for instance, was bad.  But with all the time Anderson was given and with the confidence in his protection he accumulated, those guys faced a real uphill battle.

Obviously, Aaron Ross – a universally popular Giant, it seems – had a truly horrific game.  The first big play to Braylon – you rarely see Ross miss a tackle like that – the second big play to Braylon, and the fourth quarter touchdown to Braylon were all back-breaking plays and were all Ross’ fault (though it’s hard to kill a guy for suddenly getting a cramp).  On the touchdown to Darnell Dinkins, Ross was playing the deep safety position, and seemed a little slow coming over the top to help Pierce.  The good news is that he appears to be okay.  Good player, awful game.

The tackling was pretty bad last night too.  Repeatedly, the Browns were able to slip out of the initial tackle to pick up a couple extra yards to put them in “manageable” situations (the announcers were so big on that concept last night).  Against the Bengals, the tackling was poor too.  In both instances, this was probably a function of being on the field for so long but it’s still something to watch going forward.

In terms of the merely bad stuff offensively, there was obviously Eli.  It was a bad performance, but one that can be shrugged off – all quarterbacks, even great ones, have them.  And aside from the interceptions, Eli was actually pretty decent last night.  (I know, I know…  If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle, but still.)  His throws were generally pretty sharp, and he completed 18 for 28, or 64% of his passes, which is actually a hair better than his 2008 completion percentage and significantly better than his career mark.

The rest of the offense was fine.  We ran the ball very well and put up 373 yards of total offense, only 57 of which were full-fledged garbage-time yards gained during that bizarrely time-consuming drive at the end of the game.  (What the hell was that, anyway?  No, we weren’t going to win the game, but it was still mathematically possible.  You don’t give up, Tom!)

So in the end, you can shrug off some things about this game.  Eli and the secondary played poorly, but that’s in the past.  The pass rush, however, and to some degree the tackling, are things to worry about going forward.

Now, I don’t know why, because they have a pretty stocked WR core, with Plax, Amani Toomer, and Steve Smith.

But here is what it says:

At least 10 teams have been in contact with the agent for the wide receiver who was released Friday by the Denver Broncos, including all four NFC East clubs, according to a source.

The 49ers, Bills, Bucs, Panthers, Raiders and Vikings also have reached out to agent Kennard McGuire regarding Walker. No visits had been scheduled as of early Saturday.

The Cowboys and Eagles have a couple connections working in their favor in pursuit of Walker. Dallas receivers coach Ray Sherman coached Walker in Green Bay. Walker is friends with Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb and the two have been training together in Arizona for several weeks.