I. Jacobs Will Almost Definitely Play

It really, really looks like dude will play – he even practiced yesterday on a limited basis.

To their credit, the G-Men have been super-cautious about this: Last week, Jacobs begged the trainers and coaches to let him play, but they insisted he rest, which was smart.  When Plax injured his hammy, he pushed it in a relatively meaningless game against Arizona, aggravating the injury.  Good to see the G-Men are learning from their mistakes.

Maybe if we win this game, we should consider resting Jacobs against the Vikings.  Consider how worn-down he looked in last year’s playoffs, when he averaged 3.2 yards per carry compared to Bradshaw’s 4.3 (which doesn’t include the touchdown-that-wasn’t in the Green Bay game, thanks to a ticky-tack hold on Chris Snee).  This brings up the question of whether we should rest guys against the Vikings if we win on Sunday, but I suppose we’ll cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

Jacobs had some pretty cool quotes in yesterday’s Star-Ledger.  Check these out:

“I don’t want to [have to] plead [to play] this week.  There’s kind of no choice.  I want to go.  Whoever I have to talk to to get this verdict, that’s what I’m going to do.”

And:

“We are the head honchos of the conference.  This game means a lot to our team, so I want to be out there to have a better chance for our team to win.”

“Head honchos” – gotta love it.  After Sunday, the G-Men will officially be the Big Cheese of the NFC.

II.  Getting Healthier

Via Mike Garafolo, Robbins, Ward, Hixon, and Moss all practiced today.  Yesterday, Jacobs, McKenzie, and Tuck practiced.  We’re getting healthier and we’re gonna fly around in the snow on Sunday night.

III.  Another Reason Not to Panic

As Ralph Vacciano pointed out in his live chat, a horrid performance in Week 15 does not a postseason run preclude.  Last year, we lost to the Redskins, 22-10 in a thoroughly listless, depressing games in recent memory.  This game saw the future Super Bowl MVP set a record for most incomplete passes in a game in a heinous 18 for 52 performance that made us wish Todd Collins was our quarterback.

So let’s see what happens on Sunday.  I’m expecting good things.

IV. Carney and Feagles

Most of the talk about the Pro Bowl has centered around Eli and Peyton becoming the first brother duo to make the Pro Bowl.  But I happen to think that Carney and Feagles become the two oldest dudes to make the Pro Bowl (44 and 42, respectively) is the cooler answer to a trivia question.

V. Great Move Locking Up Webster

Everyone knows that Webster has been good this year, but perhaps people don’t fully appreciate just how awesome: Although my fandom goes back only to around Mark Collins, I would venture to say his play this year is the best by a Giant cornerback I’ve ever seen.  Evidently, a light-bulb went on with this guy, and he was finally able to convert his incredible athleticism – he is quick, balanced, extremely long, and extremely coordinated – into results.

This outstanding article by Mike Garafolo backs up these claims with some statistics.

“Through 13 games, Webster has three interceptions and unofficially 22 passes defensed.  Webster also been the closest defender on 62 passes by opposing quarterbacks, — only 20 of which have been completed for a total of 238 yards and one touchdown.

“Add those numbers up, and opposing quarterbacks have posted just a 30.2 passer rating when throwing Webster’s way.”

So yeah… Webster is awesome and well-deserving of his five-year, $43.5 million contract.  Plus, he’s also only 26, so he’s a good bet to be good throughout the deal.  The following quote by Jerry Reese makes me feel even better:

“Corey has been an outstanding person and player in his short career for the Giants.  We are very happy to get this deal done.”

Outstanding person?  Sure, it’s a quote from a press release, but Reese didn’t have to say that.  If it’s true, it’s nice to know that Webster’s a character guy who can be a team leader in the future.

It sucks that Webster didn’t make the Pro Bowl, but in Asante Samuel, Antoine Winfield, and Charles Woodson, he was beaten out by some very deserving guys.  At first I was a little skeptical of Woodson, given the Packers overall defense.  But it turns out they have an excellent pass defense, so there you go.  Still, there should be Pro Bowl’s in Corey’s future.

I should mention that I had a one-on-one encounter with Webster the Saturday before he inked his deal.

I was at the Meadowlands watching the New Jersey high school football championships, having finagled a field pass through my friend.  (And yes, this was my first time on the field.  And yes, it was ridiculously awesome.)

I was standing near the tunnel – the one the G-Men come out of – when I spotted Webster coming out of the locker room and heading for the parking lot.  And although it looked like he was about to call someone on his cell, I went ahead and shouted, “Corey!” as I hustled toward him.

He was a little startled, but I extended a pound toward him and told him I was a big fan and he was having a great year.  That loosened him up, and he said something to the effect of, “Aright, man!” in a good-natured way, and we pound-hugged.

As we peeled away, I said to him, “You’re gonna get paid, you know.”

“I hope so,” he replied with a chuckle.  “That’s the plan.”

 

Tuesday is a day off for football players, which means Monday is party night.  Tonight, two Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw and Kevin Dockery – will host a party at the Branch Club, on 54th Street between 2nd and and 3rd Avenues.  Doors open at 11 p.m.

All G-Men fans 21- and-up are welcome, provided they bring an ID and abide by the dress code: button-down or collared shirts, and absolutely no work boots, baggy jeans, hoodies, or hats. 

In addition to Bradshaw and Dockery, Jacobs will probably be there along with some of the other guys.  And so will I, shaved and showered and, in accordance with the dress code, without my Bradshaw jersey, unfortunately.

So come one G-Men fan, and come all!  And a final word to the wise: The promoters tell me it’s probably best to show up at the door with female accompaniment.  (If you’re a female, don’t worry about bringing a dude.)  This isn’t Green Bay, so we’re not trying to make this a sausage-fest.

To RSVP, email Penetration101@gmail.com.

What an awesome win, and what an example of the resiliency of that has become the hallmark of our New York Football G-Men.  I can’t think of an attribute I’d rather my team have – since we turned the corner late last year, the Giants have developed an ability to overcome shit, to get up and fight back from things that would fall lesser teams and lesser men.

The big thing we had to overcome yesterday was the officiating.  Normally, I refrain from bitching about the refs, but yesterday was unique: I can’t remember a game in which so many key calls were blown, so egregiously, against us.

–We’ll start with the fourth down goal line play on which Jacobs was stuffed.  1) That was a touchdown – he clearly pierced the plane; and 2) The challenge that preceded that play, while validly overruling the initial touchdown call, led to the refs spotting the ball about a foot further back from the goal line than they should have.  It was a shockingly careless spot, and it cost us.

–That ridiculous personal foul called on Kenny Phillips.  Aikman – who is amazing, by the way – was all over this one.  On that play, Mewelde Moore was bobbling the ball and Phillips led with his shoulder.  There was absolutely nothing dirty or unnecessary about what Phillips did.

The NFL has gotten so protective of players’ health that refs break out the flag at the mere sight of a big hit, as if automatically means that the rules were broken.  But as my brother said at the time, “I’m sorry that Big Ben exposed [Moore], but that’s not our fault.”

–There were two extremely visible holds by Steelers d-backs that weren’t called.  On of them was in the third quarter, when Smith, who would have been wide open on a flag pattern, was slowed up when a Steeler tugged his jersey.  This led to an incompletion on a key third down pass Smith probably should have caught anyway (not a great game for my man yesterday…). 

But the refs miss those calls occasionally, so you don’t get too bent out shape over one of them.  Until later in the game, when they missed an even more obvious hold on Plax on a fade play that probably cost us a touchdown.

**

Ok, let’s get to the players.

I haven’t reviewed the tape yet, but the obvious game ball goes to the swarming pass rush, which sacked Big Ben five times and knocked him down 16 times.  Remember after the Browns game when our pass rush was a huge question mark?  That seems like a long time ago now.

Again I haven’t looked at the tape so it’s hard to tell, but my sense is that we didn’t blitz very often and much of the pressure was generated by the front four.  Certainly the sacks themselves – three by ‘Nuke, one by Tuck, and one by Tollefson – went to our D-linemen, so good job, boys.

It was also nice to see us get those four picks, although two of them were on fourth down in bat-down situations.  But along with our pass rush, our seeming inability to create turnovers had threatened to become a disturbing trend.  Hopefully there’s nothing to worry about in both respects, Charlie.

Offensively, the game-ball goes to the O-line.  Although the run-blocking was uncharacteristically poor, the pass protection more than made up for it.  The Steelers have a nasty pass rush and Eli wasn’t sacked once.  Awesome job, fatties.

Eli also deserves credit.  No, it wasn’t his best game, but it was a winning performance that should make us even more confident going forward.  19 for 32 for 199 yards doesn’t sound great, but don’t forget those two drops each by Hedgecock (on short passes) and Smith (on the flag pattern described above and a deep post on which, although he got crushed, he probably should have secured the catch).

Eli also saved his best pass for the most important moment, that fourth and 6 to Amani that set up the field goal that pulled us to 14-12.  Speaking of Amani, a special game-ball goes to him: Once you saw that the open man downfield was Amani, did you not 75% more confident at that moment?  What a fine receiver and a great all-time Giant.

**

On the downside, yesterday’s game was a clear example of the coaching staff’s forcing the issue with Jacobs, particularly in short-yardage situations.  Just because a guy is big doesn’t mean he’s the best man for the job.  In fact, I would argue that Jacobs’ size prevents him from getting the leverage necessary to generate power in cramped quarters.  And his lack of short-area quickness precludes improvisation: if the hole is blocked and Jacobs has the ball, we’re fucked.

In terms of the running backs, the obvious question after yesterday is, as NYGMen commentator Cody put it last week, “Whither Ahmad Bradshaw?”

On Saturday, I gained some insight into this from a source I met while covering a story for my day job, who told me Ahmad has been “getting into trouble with the coach.”  So there you have it, folks: Ahmad is in the doghouse.  For what, we do not know.  Maybe it’s related to his historical legal troubles, and maybe it’s not.  Either way, this is very disappointing to hear.

Speaking of the doghouse, this shit with Plax has gone too far.  I’ve tried to defend him all year, but his most recent episode of insubordination has, I fear, made a fool out of me.  Plax: Stop being a dick.  We just gave you a new contract, and all we ask is that you do what’s asked of you at your job.  It shouldn’t be so fucking hard.

**

This game reminded me of the Green Bay playoff game last year.  It was a tough road game at dusk against a storied opponent wearing yellow helmets.  And while that opponent was favored, it became evident over the course of the game that we were the better team.

As with the Green Bay game, our dominance wasn’t reflected on the scoreboard.  Yesterday, we had to overcome poor red-zone efficiency when our first four trips yielded four field goals.

Also like the Green Bay game, our inferior opponent stayed in the game with a couple of big plays: Against the Packers, it was that bomb to Driver.  Against the Steelers, it was the long run by Moore and then the bomb to Washington (obvious point here, but what in the world was Butler thinking on that one?).

And like the Green Bay game, this one appeared to be slipping away in the third quarter, when our opponent finally got their shit together and started playing well.  But in both games, we came back and won the fourth quarter decisively.

I’m proud of this team.

With the love-fest surrounding our Earth, Wind, and Fire running back trio, now seems a good time to get on the record with this statement: Jacobs gets way too many carries, Bradshaw gets way too few, and this state of affairs is holding this team back.  And with the hyper-competitive state of the NFC East, we can’t afford not to maximize our potential.

In the Rams game, Jacobs got 15 carries (54%), Ward got 8 (29%), and Bradshaw got 5 (18%).  In last year’s playoffs, Jacobs got 56% of the carries to Bradshaw’s 44%, despite the fact that Bradshaw averaged 4.3 yards per carry to Jacobs’ 3.2.

Clearly Bradshaw is the better back, but Jacobs gets more carries, a situation that represents nothing less than an underutilization of resources.  I see no reason for why this is so, but apparently some people do.  Here are some common rationales for why Jacobs get so many more carries than the other two, and why I disagree.

 

Jacobs wears down/softens up the defense, so the defensive fronts Bradshaw and Ward see are diminished versions of what Jacobs sees.

On the surface, it makes sense that being forced to tackle a huge back like Jacobs would wear down a defense.  But what actually wears a defense down is being forced to stay on the field for a long time, absorbing blocks from offensive linemen bigger than Jacobs and running sideline-to-sideline wind sprints to catch a guy like Bradshaw.  The way to wear down a defense is not to punish the one or two defenders who happen to tackle the running back, but rather to accumulate first downs and keep drives going.  Therefore, the carries should go to the guy that gives us the best chance of getting first downs, and that guy is Bradshaw.

Despite Bradshaw’s markedly superior yards per carry average, you will still hear people proclaim that Jacobs, in fact, is the guy that gives us the best chance at sustaining drives.  This theory accepts the conventional wisdom that while Bradshaw is an exciting home-run hitter, Jacobs is the better between-the-tackles runner who uses his physicality to grind out the extra yards and put us in manageable situations.

But this isn’t true.  For as big as Jacobs is, and for all his impressive displays of masculinity (the Woodson play against Green Bay, the Landry play in the season opener), he doesn’t drive the pile because of his high center of gravity.  Ward, with his outstanding lower-body strength, is probably better for this purpose, and Bradshaw, though some typecast him as a scatback, isn’t too shabby in this department himself.  Just ask Ty Warren.

Also, Jacobs’ lack of short-area quickness precludes him from being the short-yardage runner often say he is.  Case in point was his 4^th down carry on the last drive of the Super Bowl, when he got chopped down at the legs – a frequent phenomenon – and sort of happened to fall forward a few inches past the first down marker.

Lastly, there is a distinction between a guy who is hard to tackle, and a guy who tackling is a painful experience.  Sure, Jacobs is as bruising as they come, but unless it’s in the open field with a full head of steam, it doesn’t seem particularly difficult for NFL defenders to get the guy to the ground.  And if it’s the open field we’re talking about, I’ll take Ahmad or Ward any day.

 

We don’t want to overuse Bradshaw because he might get hurt.  Jacobs, as the bigger back, is better equipped to carry the load.

There’s some legitimacy to the fear about wearing Bradshaw down.  I’m don’t want to overstate the case here: yes, they should all split caries so that all three of them can be fresh and healthy.

But why do we assume that Bradshaw is this delicate flower who can’t be overused?  The guy was a featured back for two years at Marshall, racking up 214 and 249 carries his last two years.  Maybe it’s Jacobs who we should worry about overusing.  Last year, he missed five games with various injuries and definitely seemed to lose a half-step in the playoffs, which rendered him pretty ineffective.  Bradshaw, while small, is instinctive and maneuverable enough to avoid big hits.  Big Brandon’s penchant for relishing contact, on the other hand, leaves him exposed to hits, perpetually prone to the kind of nagging injuries that sidelined him for stretches last year.

 

Jacobs averaged 5 yards a carry last year and is averaging 5.8 yards a carry this year.  What’s wrong with that?  If it ain’t broke, why fix it?

Indeed, it’s hard to complain about the Giants running game.  But it can be better, and if we’re serious about contending for another Super Bowl, it needs to be better. 

Perhaps the stubborn insistence on giving Jacobs the majority of the carries comes down to the fact that he looks like a featured back, especially a feature back for the New York Football Giants.  He’s big, he’s physical, he’s tough, and we’re the G-Men.  Of course he’s our back. 

But he’s not our best back.  Jacobs is fine, but we have a good one in Ward and a potentially great one in Bradshaw.  (We haven’t even discussed pass-catching, by the way, but it’s clear that Bradshaw is a good receiver, Ward is at least a competent receiver, and Jacobs is a pretty horrendous receiver – by the time he corrals the ball, six defenders seem always to have descended on him already.)

We must not let our rigidity about these roles get in the way of improving this team.  I’m not advocating for Ahmad to get 25 carries a game, but a more equitable distribution of the carries seems reasonable.  How about 11 for Jacobs, 8 for Ward, and 11 for Ahmad?  Can we start with that?  Can we get our best back in the game?

It was an uneven offensive performance, with our low point total (16) somewhat belied by our 354 yards, more than the 331 we averaged last year.  And because we sat on the lead for much of the second half, you have to think we could have done a bit more.

But the second half was poor, no question about it. After gaining 241 of our 354 yards in the first half, we were out-gained by the Redskins 158 to 113 in the second.  A 9 point lead isn’t comfortable enough to justify this – as is their unfortunate wont, the G-Men seemed to fall asleep on offense with a lead that, based on the flow and feeling of the game, seemed bigger than it actually was.

Alas, we Giants fans have become accustomed to this maddening trait, and I doubt it’s gonna change.  This week, we got lucky – our defense played great and the Redskins were clearly not ready to score points at this point of the season.  But we haven’t been so lucky in the past, and we might not be so lucky next time.

One of the reason the scoreboard didn’t fully reflect our dominance in the first half is that we didn’t fully capitalize in the red zone (I refuse to call it the green zone, Tom), where we came away with only a touchdown and a field goal in three trips.  Last year, we were 13^th in the league in red-zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns 54.5 percent of the time compared to the league average of 52 percent.  Based on this percentage, we scored around 2 fewer points on Thursday than what would be “expected.”

Our low point total also owed itself to being stopped on a couple of third and shorts you would expect us to convert: 1) On our second possession, when Ward was met by London Fletcher at the 7 (John Madden aptly called this “a four point tackle); and 2) on our fourth possession, where Jacobs got stopped on a toss sweep, setting up Carney’s 47-yard field goal.

Going forward, these short-yardage situations shouldn’t be a problem.  Last year, we ranked 7^th best in the league in a FootballOutsiders stat called “Power” situations – the percentage of runs on either third or fourth down that result in either a first down or a touchdown.  The year before, we ranked 6^th.  Basically, we have a big, physical line made for such situations.  (My only complaint is that we seem to assume that Jacobs is our best good short-yardage option, just because he’s big.  When we had Tiki, I thought Tiki was better than Jacobs, even in these situations.  Now I think Bradshaw is.  More on this at some point in the future…)

Eli and the passing game:

Like the entire offense’s performance, Eli gets mixed reviews here.  But his sub-par stat-line – 19- 35, 216 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt – sells his performance a little short, I think.

The guy did a lot of great stuff: a couple of those throws to Plax (including the pump-fake on the 30-yarder on the first drive), the pocket presence on the long 3^rd down completion to Sinorice (very nice to see), and a nice play where he stepped up in the pocket and hit Jacobs over the middle come to mind.

There was also his confident demeanor, something not only Madden picked up on, but also my friend Wong, who put it well by saying: “Do you see the balls on Eli now?  He thinks he can pretty much put the ball wherever he wants to now.”

Unfortunately, this confidence verged into recklessness on a few occasions.  I’m not even talking about the interception, on which Boss was actually open – that was just a poorly thrown ball.  What was more troubling were the four near-interceptions resulting from either bad decisions by Eli or miscommunication with the receivers.  One of these four near-picks — when Rogers jumped a route – could have gone back for a touchdown and changed the complexion of the game.

So overall, Eli did some great things and some bad things.

As far as the O-line is concerned, the protection was pretty good in the first half, but pretty bad in the second half.  On each of our first four second half series, the protection badly broke down at least once.  Eli threw his interception with Andre Carter in his face, which might have altered the trajectory of the throw. 

Plax:

What more can you say here?  Toby Hyde, the purveyor of Metsminorsleagueblog.com, pointed out in a non Mets-related note that on passes targeted for Plax, Eli was 10-13 with 10.23 YPA.  On passes targeted for all other receivers, he was 9-21, averaging 3.95 YPA.  This speaks for itself. 

Plax is a great Giant, he was a great signing, and he’s in for a monster year.  More than anything else, the hope of an improved Eli and a healthy Plax is reason to believe we’re gonna be better than last year.

Smith:

First down machine.  Thank God the Panthers took Dwayne Jarrett.

Running game:

Pretty dominant, though less so in the second half.  Still, its’ hard to complain about 4.8 yards a pop over 32 rushing attempts. 

Our run-blocking is probably the best single facet of our team, and is the reason that Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw are all good contributors.  FootballOutsiders has a stat called Adjusted Line Yards, which seeks to separate the roles of linemen and backs to apportion credit on running plays.  The formula is kind of complicated, but the G-Men ranked 2^nd in the league in this stat last year after ranking 4^th in the league in 2006.  So basically, the stats — whatever value you put in this particular one — bear it out: our run-blocking is elite. 

As far as the backs go, you have to be happy with what both Jacobs and Ward gave you.  But at the same time, you have wonder why Bradshaw didn’t get in.  Ward and Jacobs are fine, but it’s pretty clear that Ahmad’s our best back – some of those holes were so big, maybe Ahmad could have maybe hit a home run with one of them.  The rotation should be set up around Bradshaw, to keep him healthy and fresh, and not Jacobs.  There will be more on this point as the season goes along.

Andy F., the proprietor of UltimateNYG and a huge Bradshaw supporter himself, dug up something of an explanation of the situation from Coughlin’s press conference: 

“That was my fault.  I didn’t get that rotation worked out the way I really would want to. …  When we were making yards, they were tough yards, and I was pleased with some of the things that were happening with Jacobs and then with Derrick Ward.  Not that I am not pleased with Bradshaw, no that is not the case, but I just didn’t get the right rotation.”

(I don’t really understand this.  Did he not put in Bradshaw because Jacobs and Ward were playing well, or did he fuck up the rotation?)

But give credit to Jacobs and Ward for doing a nice job.  As many have pointed out, Jacobs has looked a lot spryer this year than he did toward the end of last year. Maybe the key to keeping him effective over the course of the season is limiting his carries, which is why his 21 carries were a little bit worrisome and unnecessary.

Also, it’s pretty clear by now that Jacobs is a pretty brutal receiver.  He has stone hands, which not only causes drops, but also precludes him from maneuvering immediately after the catch because he doesn’t bring the ball in smoothly.  It’s almost as if you can see the defenders converging on him as he battles the ball.

Ward did a good job, showing his trademark one-cut, downhill style.  He had a nice, smooth catch ‘n’ run as well, which contrasted with Jacobs’ inability to do the same.