In the comments section on Monday’s post, Jake, a ‘Skins fan, posed the question of which NFC East team should scare us the most.  Dan’s replied that while the ‘Skins deserve credit for what they’ve accomplished thus far, the Cowboys – once they get Romo and their guys back – scare him more.

In order to have this conversation, I think we need to define what “scares us” means.  Are we talking about the team most likely to overtaking us for the Division lead?  Or the team we’d least like to face in a late-season of playoff game?  Those two different questions have two different answers.

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In terms of overtaking us, the ‘Skins 6-2 record – and their second half schedule which includes three bad teams (Seahawks, Bengals, Niners, albeit on the road) and home dates against the NFC East – makes them the biggest threat.

I think Dan was a little dismissive about the ‘Skins when he said they’ve been “overachieving.”  They have been a little, but not by all that much, and it’s possible the difference will be offset by having the NFC East at home during the second half.

To be clear, their 6-2 record is not a mirage: their 20.5% DVOA ranks fifth in the league.  Defensively, their defense has actually been worse than last year (-3.3% to -7.2% — remember, a negative DVOA is good on defense).  Offensively is where they’re probably overachieving: their 19.9% is much higher than their 1% last year, which speaks to Dan’s point about water seeking its level.

On the other hand, it’s possible that Campbell has truly arrived.  His 27.7% DVOA ranks seventh in the league, just ahead of Eli’s 27.5%.  Last year, Campbell’s DVOA was 4.4%, ranking him 22nd in the league.  Eli’s?  -13.5%, though that only includes the regular season.

So is it really fair to assume that the ‘Skins O is a fluke and ours isn’t?

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In terms of the most scary team in what Mike Francessa would call a Big Spot, I agree with Dan that it’s still the ‘Boys.

Think about it: the ‘Boys beat us twice in the regular season last year and then outplayed us in that playoff game.  If Patrick Crayton doesn’t break off his route on that final drive, or if Crayton doesn’t drop two key first down passes, or if Romo doesn’t grievously overthrow T.O. on that third quarter crossing pattern deep in our territory, the Cowboys probably win that game.  Taking nothing away from what we accomplished and how much the Cowboys choked, we were lucky to win that game.  Any time you win a game in which you were outgained 336 to 230, you’ve gotten lucky.

This year, the ‘Boys, at 5-3, haven’t played well, even considering the injuries they’ve had.  Their DVOA of -5.2% places them 20th in the NFL, and owes largely to their shoddy defense (10.2%), far worse than their -5.8% last year.

But two of those losses – a 2-point loss to Washington and an overtime loss to Arizona – could have gone either way.  And if last week’s game against Tampa Bay is any indication, their defense is coming around.

It’s a long season, and their best football is ahead of them.  And do you think there’s anything the Cowboys would relish more than coming into the Meadowlands in January and avenging last year?  That prospect is not unlikely, and has to scare you.

What is unlikely is the Cowboys overtaking us, especially because they will be very hard-pressed if they don’t win on Sunday.  It’s possible, and the 11-point line is a little steep, but I don’t think Brad Johnson is beating us.

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Lastly, just as Dan said, don’t forget about the Eagles.  No, don’t forget about the Eagles at all.

You guys might be a little tired of DVOA by now, but let me point out that it’s actually the Eagles, not the Giants, who rank first in the NFL in the arcane but all-important stat.  (The Eagles are at 38.6%, while the G-Men are at 37.2%.)

They’re in a bit of a hole at 4-3, but in one of those losses, they severely outplayed the Bears (these types of early-season losses seem to always happen to the Eagles).   More importantly, they just got Westbrook back.  4-3 notwithstanding, this team is really good.

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So in conclusion, in terms of the teams that are the biggest threat to overtake us for the division, I would go 1) ‘Skins; 2) Eagles (they’re gonna beat the Seahawks this week); and 3) Cowboys.

But in terms of teams who I fear most in a big game down the stretch, I would go 1) Cowboys; 2) Eagles; and 3) ‘Skins.

We knew that the NFC East was good going into the year, and aside from the Cowboys’ injuries and drama, it has been better than expected.  And the Cowboys, we must assume, will get their shit together.  Scary.

The astute analysis that follows was penned by Cory Kempema, my college buddy and former blogging partner who somehow became a die-hard Steelers fan while growing up in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

First of all, I would just like to say thank you for beating the Patriots. The last 9 months would have been absolutely unbearable if New England would have completed a perfect season. The entire NFL owes the New York Football Giants a huge debt of gratitude.

I would also like to compliment the Giants on defending their title quite admirably so far this season – it has been much better than the Steelers’ pitiful Super Bowl hangover in 2006. The Giants were obviously underrated before the season started, and I’m sure the lack of respect they’ve seen from the media has helped fire up the locker room. With a 5-1 record and sitting atop the NFC East, the Giants are in excellent position to defend their title. But, after looking at your schedule, I have to say I was a little surprised that your only quality win came against the Redskins in Week One. Now, I understand that there aren’t any easy wins in the NFL, but there is only so much you can know about a team that has been beating teams like St. Louis, Cincinnati, Seattle and San Francisco. Of course, I’ll be the first to admit that the Steelers have had a soft schedule as well. They had one good win at Jacksonville, but have amassed their 5-1 record by beating pansies like Houston, Cleveland, Baltimore and Cincinnati, not to mention the embarrassing loss to the Eagles.

Nonetheless, the consensus of the various power rankings is that the Steelers and Giants are two of the top three teams in the NFL. With a 4:15 nationally televised game between two 5-1 teams with storied histories, recent Super Bowl championships and two star quarterbacks, this game will be the highlight of the NFL schedule in Week Eight. I think both teams still have something to prove, and Sunday is the perfect time for the world to see how good the Steelers and Giants really are.

The Eli vs. Big Ben rivalry will inevitably be the focal point for the media’s pre-game hype. It’s hard to deny the obvious comparisons: both QBs were taken high in the 2004 draft and both have led their teams to Super Bowl championships during their young careers. However, I don’t think this game will be won or lost by either Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger. Both quarterbacks are certainly talented enough to pick apart an opposing defense if given enough time. But, both QBs have also shown a tendency to make bad decisions and bad throws when faced with too much pressure. And, when you have two teams that love to rush the passer as much as the Steelers and Giants, the key to victory will be which team is able to buy their QB enough time operate efficiently.

Both teams are among the best in the NFL at getting to the QB: the Steelers come into Week Eight leading the NFL with 25 sacks; the Giants are not far behind with 21 sacks. Neither the Giants nor Steelers have a great secondary, especially with the Steelers losing CB Bryant McFadden to injury, so the pressure up front is essential to their defensive philosophy. It is interesting to note, however, that the methods these two teams use to generate their pass rush could not be more different. The Giants depend mostly on their front four – 18 of their 21 sacks come from defensive linemen. In contrast, the Steelers’ top pass rushers are their outside linebackers, with James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley accounting for 8 sacks a piece, and only 2 sacks come from their 3-man defensive line. Woodley is the guy to keep your eye on if you are a Giants fan. In his second year out of Michigan, the converted college DE has turned into a premier edge rusher in a 3-4 scheme, and if the Giants plan on using a TE or RB to stop him, he will make it a very long day for Eli Manning.

The Giants have faced two teams that run the 3-4 defense this season: the Browns and the 49ers. The Giants had no problem with the 49ers defense, and only gave up one sack to Cleveland. Eli did throw 3 interceptions against the Browns, but that may have been primarily due to an off day by Manning rather than pressure by the Cleveland defense. In any case, few teams run the 3-4 defense as effectively as the Steelers, and the zone blitz scheme invented by Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is well known to create chaos at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers disguise their blitzes very well, so it is difficult for the offensive linemen to know who to pick up. In addition to Woodley and Harrison, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, Larry Foote, Troy Polamalu and Deshea Townsend are all very capable of sacking the opposing QB, and DE Brett Keisel is athletic enough to be able to drop back and cover like a linebacker.  The Steelers defense has been surprisingly vanilla so far this season, but don’t be surprised if Dick LeBeau finally unleashes some exotic blitz packages against a first-rate offensive line like the Giants.

Speaking of offensive lines, the Steelers’ pass protection sucks. Roethlisberger has been sacked 18 times so far in 2008, which is tied for third most in the NFL. Most famously, the Steelers’ offensive line had a complete meltdown against the Eagles, which resulted in 8 sacks. Is a scenario like that possible against the Giants on Sunday? Yes. However, there are a few reasons for optimism for the Steelers. Darnell Stapleton has taken over duties at RG for Kendall Simmons, who is a pussy, with the result being only three sacks given up by Pittsburgh over the past two and a half games. The interior of the Steelers offensive line has now been completely replaced since this time last year, with Chris Kemoeatu, Justin Hartwig and Stapleton taking over for Alan Faneca, Sean Mahan and Simmons. It’s still early, but it appears as though the current lineup provides at least marginally better protection than last year’s version, which was one of the worst units in the NFL. The Steelers will also utilize two TE sets frequently as a way to complement their pass and run blocking. I can’t overstate the importance of this game in terms of developing a sense of confidence for the Steelers offensive line. If the Steelers are able to protect Big Ben against the vaunted Giants pass rush, the debacle against the Eagles will be largely dismissed as a fluke. Another game like the one in Philly, however, could be devastating for the Steelers’ hopes this season.

Both teams will also seek to take the pressure off their QB by establishing the running game early. Again, the Steelers and Giants both are among the best ground games in the NFL. Mewelde Moore, the former Viking, has been a very pleasant surprise for the Steelers the last two weeks, rushing for 219 yards and 3 TDs as well as providing a credible receiving threat, against the Jags and Bengals. Moore is a more patient runner than Willie Parker, who has a few big runs each game but also has a tendency to run straight into the backs of his blockers, resulting in negative or zero-yard plays far too often (ask Greg about his unimpressive DVOA). From what I’ve seen of Moore, he seems to have better vision, finding the hole and gliding through it with his superb speed. Dare I say he is even a little Tikiesque in that respect? Moore doesn’t have the same homerun hitting ability as Parker, who turns the corner as well as anyone in the NFL, but he usually nets positive yardage on almost every carry, which is crucial to establishing a ground game. On the injury front, Willie Parker has been nursing a strained MCL, but is scheduled to return against the Giants. However, you should still expect to see plenty of Mewelde Moore on Sunday.

The Giants currently lead the NFL in rushing with 169.7 yards per game thanks to the three-headed monster of Jacobs/Ward/Bradshaw. The Giants have not, however, faced a run defense like the Pittsburgh Steelers’ yet this year. Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith are two of the main reasons why the Steelers rarely allow a 100 yard rusher. Hampton is simply a gigantic space-eater in the middle of the D-line, and the Giants will have to block him with two men. Aaron Smith, who is perhaps the most underrated member of the Steelers, has an uncanny ability to shed blockers and move laterally to plug any holes the RB may be trying to squeeze through. Most teams abandon the run against the Steelers, which is a mistake, I think, because throwing every play allows the defense to tee off on the QB, which results in sacks and turnovers.

I predict a low-scoring, hard-hitting game on Sunday. The fact that the game is at Heinz Field would seem to bode well for the Steelers, except for the Giants amazing record on the road. Although inter-conference games are the least important games of the season, this game is pivotal at least to the extent it will affect the psychology of the two teams. If the Steelers’ offense unravels under the pressure of the Giants pass rush, it will be a serious blow to the confidence of the offensive line and Big Ben. And the Giants cannot really afford to lose many games in the ultra-competitive NFC East. Now, the unexpected can always dramatically change the course of the game. Special teams, turnovers, and fluke big plays can easily be the deciding factor in an otherwise even match-up – for example, the Plaxico Burress/Ike Taylor match-up will be intriguing to watch. With that being said, this game will most likely be won or lost in the trenches. In order for the Steelers to win, they must protect Roethlisberger. For the Giants to win, they must get their running game established to take the pressure off Manning. To paraphrase Vito Corleone, good luck to the G-Men, as best as your interests don’t conflict with our interests.

With the love-fest surrounding our Earth, Wind, and Fire running back trio, now seems a good time to get on the record with this statement: Jacobs gets way too many carries, Bradshaw gets way too few, and this state of affairs is holding this team back.  And with the hyper-competitive state of the NFC East, we can’t afford not to maximize our potential.

In the Rams game, Jacobs got 15 carries (54%), Ward got 8 (29%), and Bradshaw got 5 (18%).  In last year’s playoffs, Jacobs got 56% of the carries to Bradshaw’s 44%, despite the fact that Bradshaw averaged 4.3 yards per carry to Jacobs’ 3.2.

Clearly Bradshaw is the better back, but Jacobs gets more carries, a situation that represents nothing less than an underutilization of resources.  I see no reason for why this is so, but apparently some people do.  Here are some common rationales for why Jacobs get so many more carries than the other two, and why I disagree.

 

Jacobs wears down/softens up the defense, so the defensive fronts Bradshaw and Ward see are diminished versions of what Jacobs sees.

On the surface, it makes sense that being forced to tackle a huge back like Jacobs would wear down a defense.  But what actually wears a defense down is being forced to stay on the field for a long time, absorbing blocks from offensive linemen bigger than Jacobs and running sideline-to-sideline wind sprints to catch a guy like Bradshaw.  The way to wear down a defense is not to punish the one or two defenders who happen to tackle the running back, but rather to accumulate first downs and keep drives going.  Therefore, the carries should go to the guy that gives us the best chance of getting first downs, and that guy is Bradshaw.

Despite Bradshaw’s markedly superior yards per carry average, you will still hear people proclaim that Jacobs, in fact, is the guy that gives us the best chance at sustaining drives.  This theory accepts the conventional wisdom that while Bradshaw is an exciting home-run hitter, Jacobs is the better between-the-tackles runner who uses his physicality to grind out the extra yards and put us in manageable situations.

But this isn’t true.  For as big as Jacobs is, and for all his impressive displays of masculinity (the Woodson play against Green Bay, the Landry play in the season opener), he doesn’t drive the pile because of his high center of gravity.  Ward, with his outstanding lower-body strength, is probably better for this purpose, and Bradshaw, though some typecast him as a scatback, isn’t too shabby in this department himself.  Just ask Ty Warren.

Also, Jacobs’ lack of short-area quickness precludes him from being the short-yardage runner often say he is.  Case in point was his 4^th down carry on the last drive of the Super Bowl, when he got chopped down at the legs – a frequent phenomenon – and sort of happened to fall forward a few inches past the first down marker.

Lastly, there is a distinction between a guy who is hard to tackle, and a guy who tackling is a painful experience.  Sure, Jacobs is as bruising as they come, but unless it’s in the open field with a full head of steam, it doesn’t seem particularly difficult for NFL defenders to get the guy to the ground.  And if it’s the open field we’re talking about, I’ll take Ahmad or Ward any day.

 

We don’t want to overuse Bradshaw because he might get hurt.  Jacobs, as the bigger back, is better equipped to carry the load.

There’s some legitimacy to the fear about wearing Bradshaw down.  I’m don’t want to overstate the case here: yes, they should all split caries so that all three of them can be fresh and healthy.

But why do we assume that Bradshaw is this delicate flower who can’t be overused?  The guy was a featured back for two years at Marshall, racking up 214 and 249 carries his last two years.  Maybe it’s Jacobs who we should worry about overusing.  Last year, he missed five games with various injuries and definitely seemed to lose a half-step in the playoffs, which rendered him pretty ineffective.  Bradshaw, while small, is instinctive and maneuverable enough to avoid big hits.  Big Brandon’s penchant for relishing contact, on the other hand, leaves him exposed to hits, perpetually prone to the kind of nagging injuries that sidelined him for stretches last year.

 

Jacobs averaged 5 yards a carry last year and is averaging 5.8 yards a carry this year.  What’s wrong with that?  If it ain’t broke, why fix it?

Indeed, it’s hard to complain about the Giants running game.  But it can be better, and if we’re serious about contending for another Super Bowl, it needs to be better. 

Perhaps the stubborn insistence on giving Jacobs the majority of the carries comes down to the fact that he looks like a featured back, especially a feature back for the New York Football Giants.  He’s big, he’s physical, he’s tough, and we’re the G-Men.  Of course he’s our back. 

But he’s not our best back.  Jacobs is fine, but we have a good one in Ward and a potentially great one in Bradshaw.  (We haven’t even discussed pass-catching, by the way, but it’s clear that Bradshaw is a good receiver, Ward is at least a competent receiver, and Jacobs is a pretty horrendous receiver – by the time he corrals the ball, six defenders seem always to have descended on him already.)

We must not let our rigidity about these roles get in the way of improving this team.  I’m not advocating for Ahmad to get 25 carries a game, but a more equitable distribution of the carries seems reasonable.  How about 11 for Jacobs, 8 for Ward, and 11 for Ahmad?  Can we start with that?  Can we get our best back in the game?

In the Washington Post, Jim Fassel apparently blamed the bloggers for his downfall.

I believe Jim Fassel to be a great guy, and I think he probably got treated poorly over the past month, and I would have been fine with him as head coach, but just today the real culprits behind his non-hiring emerged. Their names? Mister Irrelevant, Unsilent Majority, Hogs Haven, and the Curly R. From Fassel’s interview with the John Thompson Show this afternoon:

When I got the New York Giants job I remember telling my family that, ‘You know, you cannot hold the lead in these jobs in major markets.’ Because you’ve got bloggers, and they’re saying, ‘No, this isn’t the right guy, and that ain’t the right guy,’ and you can’t hold the lead, because you are going to take the hit. I mean, when you’re the lead dog, you’re going to take the hit. And I think the longer it went, the longer it went, the longer it went….

Yeah, we know, the longer it went, the more people named “Nate in the PDX” had a chance to gripe about your potential hiring, thus inevitably sabotaging you as a candidate. Fassel spoke highly of Dan Snyder throughout this interview, as he has in other interviews, but bear in mind that he’s basically accusing Mr. Snyder and his cousin, Vinny, of taking their cues from a pair of blogging brothers and a guy who spends all his time looking at Undrcrwn shirts on the Internet and coming up with jokes about private parts, plus RI commenters named PDiddy and dcsween and 4th Floor. I mean, at the very least have the courtesy to blame anonymous message board posters in addition to semi-anonymous bloggers.

More at the Washington Post.

Here’s Gary Myers’s take.

There obviously are no guarantees. He has come up empty in the last five hiring cycles. Coaches with far less impressive resumes in their first jobs have received second chances. Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick, who met in the Super Bowl 10 days ago, were each fired from their first job without making it to the Super Bowl.

Ten of the 32 current head coaches are on at least their second job, and of those, only Mike Holmgren made it to the Super Bowl in his first job.

Fassel deserves another chance, although it’s clear that if GMs around the league believed he was the answer, somebody would have hired him by now. He interviewed twice with the Redskins in Washington and once at the Super Bowl in Phoenix and it appeared that the only reason Snyder had not made it official was because he wanted to talk to Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after the Super Bowl.

And when Spagnuolo removed himself from consideration Thursday after 28 hours of interviews, the job surely belonged to Fassel. Then he was blindsided Saturday when Snyder promoted offensive coordinator Jim Zorn, whom he had just hired Jan.26 off Holmgren’s staff in Seattle.

 

More at the Daily News

I don’t understand why Fassel doesn’t have another head coaching job in the NFL. But I do understand a clown with a clown like Dan Snyder calling the shots down in DC, why Jim Zorn and not Fassel is now the head coach.

Paul Schwartz of the Post spoke with Fassel about this.

Maybe Jim Zorn evolves into a wonderful head coach, and in a year or two Redskin owner Dan Snyder is waxing poetic about his choice.

But there is little doubt the Redskins, with Jim Fassel calling the shots, would have been a far more dangerous opponent for the Giants, just as there is no doubt Snyder screwed up the process and did not hire the right man for the job.

“I know Dan Snyder likes me as a coach,” Fassel said yesterday in a phone conversation with The Post. “I’m greatly disappointed, because I thought it was the right fit and I thought I could work well with Dan.”

For the second time, Snyder left Fassel at the coaching altar. Back in 2004, Fassel, immediately after he was fired by the Giants after seven interesting and often successful seasons, nearly got right back on the coaching carousel.

Read all about it in the Post.

This has been around as Hitler the Cowboy Fan, but now the fuerer reacts to Super Bowl XLII.

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And if you didn’t see Hitler the Cowboy Fan…

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Sorry Jim Fassel, the ‘Skins went in a different directions.

From the Washington Post:

“I’ve always dreamed of being a head coach with a franchise rich in tradition like the Redskins,” Zorn said in a statement. “As a player who had to fight Redskins teams at RFK as well as at our home field, I know about the history of this franchise as well as the passion of its fans. I won’t let you down.”

Former players under Zorn consider him to be a patient teacher who handles high-pressure situations well. They say he shares some similarities with Joe Gibbs, who stepped down as Redskins coach and team president on Jan. 8, including being devoutly religious.

“He reminds me of a young Joe Gibbs,” Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said. “When you say Joe Gibbs, people immediately respect him and treat him as a great guy. Jim is like that. People respect him.”

Redskins players reached last night expressed relief that the search, which dragged on for 32 days and had been shrouded in secrecy, finally ended. The team seriously considered about half a dozen candidates, most notably former assistant head coach-defense Gregg Williams, the favorite of Redskins players; former New York Giants coach Jim Fassel; and Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who directed the stunning upset of the previously undefeated New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Me? I feel bad for Fassel, who deserves another chach to coach in the NFL, but he’s probably better off staying away from Dan Snyder anyway.