The credit for the inspiration behind this entry belongs to Dales, a commenter on FootballOutsiders.com, who looked up the catch-rates of the Giants receivers (the percentage of balls a receiver catches when he is the intended target).  Dales, wherever and whoever you are, thank you.  You’re the man.

Smith: 84% (31 passes)

Hixon: 80% (15 passes)

Moss: 71% (7 passes)

Plax: 56% (45 passes)

Toomer: 53% (38 passes)

Now, these figures shouldn’t be read as a ranking of the best receivers on the team.  Smith’s percentage is bound to be high because he’s targeted mostly on short, over-the-middle routes. Plax and Toomer, on the other hand are targeted more downfield, which will naturally yield a lower percentage.  And because they work more toward the sideline, they are naturally farther away from the quarterback, which will lead to a lower percentage.  And in Hixon’s case, 15 passes in his direction is too small a sample to really conclude anything, although it is promising.  But the conclusion here is obvious: Steve Smith catches everything thrown his way.

In FootballOutsiders’ individual DVOA statistic, which takes catch-rate into account and adjusts traditional stats based on situation – like whether the catch gets a first down – Smith ranks 21st in the entire NFL.  (Plax, at 27th, is no slouch either.)

Giants fans know that Smith is good, but we may not realize exactly how good.  I think some of us tend to think of Smith as the proverbial (and backhanded) “nice player.”  But what he really is is one of the best possession receivers in the game.  The fans should realize this, but more importantly, so should the coaching staff so they can find ways to get this guy more involved.

The amazing thing about Smith is that he was only active for four regular season games last year before exploding onto the scene in the playoffs.  Even including those playoff games, he’s played in only 14 NFL games.  Yet his best attribute is his savviness, his understanding of how to find creases in zones and get open.  And of course, his hands, which are borne out by the 84% statistic.

But don’t sell Smith’s athleticism short.  No, he’s not a speed-burner, but he’s a perfect underneath receiver because he’s able to reach top-speed quickly.  Also, his body-control is elite: think of the catch he made in the Super Bowl that preceded the Plax TD, when he tiptoed along the sideline while picking up the first down right in front of Brandon Meriweather’s face.  He also has good ups: think of the 22-yard catch he made to get us going on the final drive of the first half of the Dallas playoff game, without which there is no miraculous playoff run.

So we have a gem in Steve Smith.  This means I was dead wrong in my initial disappointment that Carolina took Dwayne Jarrett a few picks before we selected.  It also means that the Giants should make a point of getting this guy the ball.

**

Dales also compiled the catch-rates of the running backs:

Ward: 81% (16 catches)

Hedgecock: 60% (5 passes)

Jacobs: 44% (9 passes)

(Bradshaw didn’t show up on the stats, meaning that he hasn’t been targeted the minimum 5 times.)

This tells us what we already knew: Ward is a very good receiver, and Jacobs can’t catch.

But I don’t want to end on that note, because Jacobs has been absolutely amazing this year, causing me to temper my long-held skepticism about him.  That topic is for another entry, though.

With the love-fest surrounding our Earth, Wind, and Fire running back trio, now seems a good time to get on the record with this statement: Jacobs gets way too many carries, Bradshaw gets way too few, and this state of affairs is holding this team back.  And with the hyper-competitive state of the NFC East, we can’t afford not to maximize our potential.

In the Rams game, Jacobs got 15 carries (54%), Ward got 8 (29%), and Bradshaw got 5 (18%).  In last year’s playoffs, Jacobs got 56% of the carries to Bradshaw’s 44%, despite the fact that Bradshaw averaged 4.3 yards per carry to Jacobs’ 3.2.

Clearly Bradshaw is the better back, but Jacobs gets more carries, a situation that represents nothing less than an underutilization of resources.  I see no reason for why this is so, but apparently some people do.  Here are some common rationales for why Jacobs get so many more carries than the other two, and why I disagree.

Jacobs wears down/softens up the defense, so the defensive fronts Bradshaw and Ward see are diminished versions of what Jacobs sees.

On the surface, it makes sense that being forced to tackle a huge back like Jacobs would wear down a defense.  But what actually wears a defense down is being forced to stay on the field for a long time, absorbing blocks from offensive linemen bigger than Jacobs and running sideline-to-sideline wind sprints to catch a guy like Bradshaw.  The way to wear down a defense is not to punish the one or two defenders who happen to tackle the running back, but rather to accumulate first downs and keep drives going.  Therefore, the carries should go to the guy that gives us the best chance of getting first downs, and that guy is Bradshaw.

Despite Bradshaw’s markedly superior yards per carry average, you will still hear people proclaim that Jacobs, in fact, is the guy that gives us the best chance at sustaining drives.  This theory accepts the conventional wisdom that while Bradshaw is an exciting home-run hitter, Jacobs is the better between-the-tackles runner who uses his physicality to grind out the extra yards and put us in manageable situations.

But this isn’t true.  For as big as Jacobs is, and for all his impressive displays of masculinity (the Woodson play against Green Bay, the Landry play in the season opener), he doesn’t drive the pile because of his high center of gravity.  Ward, with his outstanding lower-body strength, is probably better for this purpose, and Bradshaw, though some typecast him as a scatback, isn’t too shabby in this department himself.  Just ask Ty Warren.

Also, Jacobs’ lack of short-area quickness precludes him from being the short-yardage runner often say he is.  Case in point was his 4^th down carry on the last drive of the Super Bowl, when he got chopped down at the legs – a frequent phenomenon – and sort of happened to fall forward a few inches past the first down marker.

Lastly, there is a distinction between a guy who is hard to tackle, and a guy who tackling is a painful experience.  Sure, Jacobs is as bruising as they come, but unless it’s in the open field with a full head of steam, it doesn’t seem particularly difficult for NFL defenders to get the guy to the ground.  And if it’s the open field we’re talking about, I’ll take Ahmad or Ward any day.

We don’t want to overuse Bradshaw because he might get hurt.  Jacobs, as the bigger back, is better equipped to carry the load.

There’s some legitimacy to the fear about wearing Bradshaw down.  I’m don’t want to overstate the case here: yes, they should all split caries so that all three of them can be fresh and healthy.

But why do we assume that Bradshaw is this delicate flower who can’t be overused?  The guy was a featured back for two years at Marshall, racking up 214 and 249 carries his last two years.  Maybe it’s Jacobs who we should worry about overusing.  Last year, he missed five games with various injuries and definitely seemed to lose a half-step in the playoffs, which rendered him pretty ineffective.  Bradshaw, while small, is instinctive and maneuverable enough to avoid big hits.  Big Brandon’s penchant for relishing contact, on the other hand, leaves him exposed to hits, perpetually prone to the kind of nagging injuries that sidelined him for stretches last year.

Jacobs averaged 5 yards a carry last year and is averaging 5.8 yards a carry this year.  What’s wrong with that?  If it ain’t broke, why fix it?

Indeed, it’s hard to complain about the Giants running game.  But it can be better, and if we’re serious about contending for another Super Bowl, it needs to be better. 

Perhaps the stubborn insistence on giving Jacobs the majority of the carries comes down to the fact that he looks like a featured back, especially a feature back for the New York Football Giants.  He’s big, he’s physical, he’s tough, and we’re the G-Men.  Of course he’s our back. 

But he’s not our best back.  Jacobs is fine, but we have a good one in Ward and a potentially great one in Bradshaw.  (We haven’t even discussed pass-catching, by the way, but it’s clear that Bradshaw is a good receiver, Ward is at least a competent receiver, and Jacobs is a pretty horrendous receiver – by the time he corrals the ball, six defenders seem always to have descended on him already.)

We must not let our rigidity about these roles get in the way of improving this team.  I’m not advocating for Ahmad to get 25 carries a game, but a more equitable distribution of the carries seems reasonable.  How about 11 for Jacobs, 8 for Ward, and 11 for Ahmad?  Can we start with that?  Can we get our best back in the game?

If you weren’t happy with the Washington win, is there anything to complain about now?  Sure the Rams suck, but one of the hallmarks of great NFL teams is that they blow out the scrubby ones.  This game is a reassuring sign that we are among the NFL elite.  Two games into the season, the Super Bowl Champs couldn’t be more encouraging.

Yes, it was a seven-point game as late as the fourth quarter.  But to say that the final score did not reflect the feeling of the game is bullshit: the Giants dominated this game on a play-by-play basis from start to finish, but it wasn’t until the final minutes of the fourth quarter that the scoreboard reflected this.  Look at it this way: we outgained them 441-201. 

At halftime, the score was only 13-6, yet the Rams had not advanced past the Giants’ 36-yard-line.  It was only those two 54-yard field goals by Brown – one of which was enabled only by Tuck’s facemask penalty [on a play he was held on, no less] – that kept the Rams in the game.

The G-Men seemingly put it away by mounting an emphatic 97-yard drive on their first possession of the third quarter, but the lucky bomb to Holt – who probably didn’t even catch the ball – meant that the G-Men had to keep the can of whoopass open.  To their credit, they did for the rest of the game. 

Offense: 

Eli was excellent, going 20-29 for 260 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 9 yards per attempt – for perspective, realize that his career YPA is 6.3.  He made a couple of bad throws, but didn’t seem to make any dangerous throws or bad decisions like the near-picks last week, which is an important distinction. 

The square-ins and back-shoulder fades to Plax, the hitches to Toomer, the touchdown on the post to Toomer – that’s the throw Eli routinely makes the best, in my opinion – the catchable passes to the backs, that pass to Boss that got called back, that gorgeous touch-pass to Hixon down the sideline, and last but not least, the lefty toss to Jacobs that set up Carney from 33…  Great job, Eli.

The pass protection was solid overall, save for a brief period near the end of the second quarter when Long sacked Eli and then McKenzie got a holding penalty on the next series.  Overall though, they did a good job. 

But the pass protection had nothing on the run-blocking, which is probably the single best facet of this team.  Jacobs had 93 yards on 15 carries, Ward had 58 on 8, and Bradshaw – in addition to his touchdown catch – had 5 carries for 32.  Overall, we had 203 yards and averaged 6.8 yards a pop.  Much of the credit for that goes to the fatties up front.

Like a lot of Giants fans, NYGMen has long beat the pro-Bradshaw drum, wondering why the clear-cut best back on our team doesn’t get more burn.  Once again, Ahmad was electrifying.  On his touchdown run, when he exploded through the hole with one man to beat, was there any doubt he was gonna beat that guy?  And after today, is there any doubt he’s criminally underutilized?  Please Tom, since we know you’re reading this, FREE AHMAD! 

As for Ward, he was very effective too.  Ward hits the hole decisively and he hits the hole hard.  With our physical offensive line and our physical fullback, he’s a good fit.

And now Jacobs…  Look, I know his overall numbers were good today (though much of his totals came from one perfectly blocked 30-yard run at the beginning of the third quarter).  And I know his overall numbers last year (5.0 yards per carry) were good too.  But please, how much more effective are the other two backs when they enter the game?  To put it another way, when was the last time you remember Jacobs being more effective than Ahmad or Ward? 

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, but the coaching staff’s insistence on making Jacobs the featured runner is holding this team back.  Yes, there’s a place for Jacobs on this team; it’s just a lot smaller than the coaching staff thinks. 

Moving on, the receivers were very good too.  Plax abused whoever covered him, and Smith made a couple great plays, one of which was called back on the down-by-contact call.  Amani, for some reason, was featured, and he acquitted himself well.

I’m not sure why Amani got so many looks – probably because Plax was being double-covered, though I’m not sure – but some of those plays showed pretty clearly that he’s lost almost all of his speed.  Amani is a very skilled receiver, adept at finding creases in the zone and a master of the toe-tap.  But at this point of his career, he’s just too slow to run by defensive backs.  There were at least two plays yesterday where he was isolated one-on-one against a corner, but the defender was able to run stride for stride with him.  Amani still has his uses, for sure, but he also has his limitations.  Going forward – and by forward, I mean possibly as early as the second half of this year – we’re going to be happy that we have Maningham, Hixon, and Moss on the roster. 

Defense: 

201 yards of total offense, and only 68 allowed against a ground game that boasts Steven Jackson, one of the best backs in the game.  6 sacks and pressure on Bulger all day.  The Tuck touchdown.  For the second straight game, what a performance by the D.

As was the case on offense, it all started up front.  Tuck, who has become the face of the defense after the Osi injury, was a beast.  Big Fred, who has late-bloomed into a star, was beastly as well. 

The pressure on Bulger was constant, and Jackson didn’t have any success running between the tackles.  The only success Jackson did have was running outside, but that’s a small thing to complain about.

The starting corners, Webster and Ross, were absolutely phenomenal.  How exciting is it that we have two potentially awesome young corners?  Who could have predicted this before last year? 

And even though the Rams’ touchdown came at Phillips’ expense, wouldn’t you even say that that play was overall encouraging?  I mean, here was our rookie safety running stride for stride with one of the best receivers of the era.  He made a smooth attempt at the ball, and although he didn’t haul it in, it was only an unpredictable bounce of the oblong ball – and a highly questionable call – that made that anything worse than a nice break-up.

Not so spectacular was Butler, who was late arriving in safety help on a big play during the series on which Holt scored the touchdown.  Yes, I know safeties are always left holding the proverbial bag, but doesn’t it seem that way too often, Butler is nowhere to be found on deep help?  He seems to lack the range you want from your deep safety – you have to think it’s only a matter of time before its Johnson and Phillips getting the majority of the burn. 

And Dockery had a bone-headed pass interference to keep that touchdown drive alive: on third down, he laid a hit on a receiver before the marker.

Special Teams: 

This was an underrated aspect of this game.  The punt and kickoff coverage was excellent, which was a relief after the brutal kickoff coverage last week.  And Hixon’s punt return in the fourth quarter should finally close the book on the R.W. era.

Note: Took a needed vacation this past week, hitting the tables in AC, so sorry for neglecting the blog.

According to Star Ledger, the Giants may be looking to trade for DeAngelo Hall.

According to two people with knowledge of discussions between the teams, the Giants are willing to give Atlanta their first-round pick (31st overall) in April’s draft in exchange for Hall. The people requested anonymity because of the private nature of the trade talks.

Giants general manager Jerry Reese declined to comment yesterday morning when asked whether the Giants have inquired about Hall, the eighth overall pick in the 2004 draft.

The Giants had hoped to make a run at the Seahawks’ Marcus Trufant and the Raiders’ Nnamdi Asomugha, according to one of the people familiar with the team’s off-season plans, but each was made the franchise players by their respective teams. The Giants would owe two first-round picks if they signed either player. Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel, who will become a free agent next Friday, is viewed by the Giants more as a player whose success is the product of New England’s defensive system than his own ability.

Hall, 24, is a fast, tough and talented player who had 17 interceptions in his four NFL seasons. However, he had a tumultuous 2007 season with the Falcons. In a loss to the Panthers in September, he drew three penalties on Carolina’s game-tying drive and then got into a shouting match with coach Bobby Petrino on the sideline. Hall was fined $100,000 and benched for the first quarter of the next week’s game for the incident.

Hall would be interesting get. Yes he could be a cancer, but with the veteran leadership on the team, I don’t see it as a problem.